Dubai World Cup

Dubai World Cup

The Dubai World Cup is a day of racing that features the top thoroughbreds in the world. Many of you may ask, "Why do I care about horses, this is of no interest to me. My sport is football." You are a fool if you think this way. The race card on Dubai World Cup day offers the best betting opportunities of the year! A sport like football offers OK betting opportunities, but to have any significant return you must either A.) risk a significant amount or B.) Parlay to extent where odds are greatly stacked against you.

I encourage all of you to take interest in the sport of horse racing, not only for the betting opportunities, but for the sheer thrill of a close race. Depending where you are in the world, you will bet into a pool, and the winning tickets will be divided evenly. Pay outs are determined by the amount of winning tickets in the pool. If you have access to Betfair, then as you know, you take and give odds. One of the best attributes about "betting the ponies" is it only takes 1 ticket to win, and that 1 ticket can win big. Also, as the athlete is the horse, the general public does not have a great grasp on what the horse can do; therefore, a longshot winning in horse racing is much more realistic than any other sport.

So what are the bets? Win, place, show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, daily double, pick 3, pick 4, pick 5, pick 6. Look these up to understand them better. Pay outs range from $2 to over $1 million. When can you ever win that much in say, basketball, or football?

Now why is the Dubai World Cup race card such a draw for so many international bettors. Many reasons,

1.) The fields are bigger, therefore harder to win, therefore bigger pay outs. Clearly it is harder to pick a winning combination in a field on 15 than a field of 5.

2.) Information asymmetry- some know more about the horses than others. How? Through direct contact, inside information, or more commonly, a handicapping device. A common tool is the thorograph sheets (thorograph.com). Essentially the "sheets" assign a power rating to the horse each time it runs, and you learn to follow that horses pattern. To understand, imagine if statisticians compiled a report each time Fenerbahce played; based on goals, weather, field quality, coaching tactics, etc.; and assigned Fener a number. You then study the pattern Fener plays at to predict how well they will do in their next game.

On Dubai World Cup day, so many know so little, and there is a tremendous amount of international bias. Lets say you are betting into a European pool, and there is an American horse that looks to have the best "number" (thorograph rating). Then your odds are inflated, and you can take a great advantage.

3.) The horses are the best in the world so their performance is more easily predictable. For example, Brazil vs. Mexico, it is clear who will win. But two amateur mexican league teams, you are not so sure who will win.

I plan on posting my picks as a guideline if there is interest in this post. I also plan to write about the NCAA basketball tournament in the U.S. My university is currently in the tournament and favored to win.

Bu hayra, alamet...